with the household electrical appliance enterprises to gradually return to work, after the outbreak views on the appliance industry will usher in a "retaliatory rebound" in the industry spread like wildfire. To tell the truth, the better the epidemic, resumed business news indeed exciting, but the "home appliance industry" can usher in a retaliatory rebound debatable.
Many people may take the 2003 SARS epidemic to do comparison, however, whether the macroeconomic environment or appliances ownership, or the current economic cycle in China which has been completely transformed. After the SARS outbreak, catering, tourism, film and other related industries indeed ushered in a retaliatory reaction, I believe that this new crown pneumonia virus after these same industries will usher in blowout needs, but most likely not include appliance industry.
for the entire appliance industry trend after the outbreak, the current mainstream view home appliance industry tend to be cautious that the majority view is that "except for some special category, after the outbreak appliance industry retaliatory rebound "is difficult to occur. At the same time, some companies began to consider cut 2020 sales target, a well-known brand anecdotal plans to cut 30% of annual sales tasks. Thus, the impact of the epidemic than we imagine large.
the impact of the epidemic has not bottomed out, the appliance industry long way to go
Although the companies return to work, operators are gradually getting better, live online home appliance is in full swing, but the impact of the epidemic has brought far not bottomed out.
A report from the Institute of Hengda showed that while the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the country has been initially inhibited, but the impact of its impact remains high.
From the production side, the PMI production index in February was 27.8%, 23.5 percentage points from the previous month fell sharply. Production index declined consistent with the high-frequency data, in 2020 the average daily coal consumption of 34 days after the holiday of six power plants equivalent to 70.5% a year earlier. Production slowed down mainly due to the impact of the epidemic enterprises under the new crown delay the resumption of work, production stagnated. Demand side, new orders and new export orders have fallen sharply, while overseas fermentation epidemic will continue to impact future export orders. February new orders and new export orders index was 29.3% and 28.7%, respectively, fell sharply the previous month, respectively 22.1 and 20.0 percentage points due to the impact of the epidemic is still mainly led to postpone the resumption of work, combined with some countries to take control on trade in China.
entered in March, although the company has been further enhanced rate of return to work, but for most companies, production efficiency is far from before the outbreak.
Guangdong, for example, although many household electrical appliance enterprises have already resumed, but subject to the workers and the supply of raw materials and other problems, production efficiency is not high end. Pescod kitchen electric stakeholders told the trend of home network, although many household electrical appliance enterprises in Guangdong have to return to work, but many foreigners are either not come to Guangdong, even to the Guangdong also need to be isolated for 14 days so most companies resulting in an insufficient number of front-line workers, while overlay limited inventory of raw materials, lack of upstream supply, household electrical appliance enterprises in the production of a short time is difficult to recover before the end of the epidemic, especially in small and medium enterprises who this performance.
In addition, there are also the home appliance industry source told the trend of home network, also reflected the impact of the epidemic in terms of capital. Affected by the epidemic, first of all, companies can not start normally, but the factory rent, staff salaries and other expenses will not reduce; secondly, for now, trade show delays, retail terminal is blocked, the enterprise is difficult to find new agents, while old agents already high inventories at the moment is not likely to play money to the factory, while superimposed in February due account of irrecoverable costs and other factors, for many businesses, capital chain slightest mistake, the problem may occur very .
domestic facing difficulties, the export is equally bleak.
now, the epidemic has spread worldwide in 55 countries and regions, Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran has become the hardest hit, the number of new confirmed cases of Japanese overseas continues to rise to four digits. As of February 29, the new crown overseas cumulative confirmed cases of pneumonia 6676 people (as of March 1 16 Shi Wind statistics), Japanese new cases of 1448 cases.
From the point of view precautionary measures, less than some degree of national attention early, too late to take measures, leading to the rapid spread of the epidemic, the current number of countries have declared a state of emergency prevention and control. Since the new crown strong infectious pneumonia, epidemic prevention capability limited in some countries, does not rule out the possibility of the development of a global "pandemic," the WHO announced on the 28th level of risk will also enhance the level.
in the global economic cycle positive peak in the background, the outbreak will increase the downward pressure on the economy, if evolved into a global pandemic, and may even trigger a global economic and financial crisis. From the industrial chain, the global spread of the disease or lead to stagnation of production and tradeEasy to control, temporarily blocking the global supply chain. By then, will have a huge impact on Chinas foreign trade, exports of home appliances will also be affected.
Thus, although the domestic outbreak have eased, but the impact is far from bottoming out, or even the first half of the whole are not optimistic.
Large contributed to normal, 5.1 and 6.18 will be a watershed
from the current response measures taken by the home appliance business point of view, self-help has become a common choice, in addition to enhance efficiency in the production end, live band cargo warehouse and put a big promotion to become household electrical appliance enterprises are currently more commonly used method.
Suning Tesco, for example, the evening of February 24, Suning announced on the basis of the previous "Open plan", "super-store broadcast program," the two bailout measures, the joint major home appliances, home improvement, mobile phones branding "community of destiny", beginning from February 27 through 24 interest-free installments, to stimulate overall market demand.
In addition, TCL, Skyworth, Midea, Haier and other brands were involved in the live Jingdong, Taobao and other platforms with a cargo activities.
From the current performance and the overall end-market trend, the promotion is likely to become the norm by 2020, the home appliance industry.
Although the major home appliance enterprises are actively self-help, but from the current macroeconomic environment and the consumer electronics market environment, even without this epidemic in 2020, the home appliance industry is not optimistic, and the emergence of the epidemic as One is the "acceleration", pushing the market to bottom.
February 28, China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute released the "2019 Chinas home appliance market report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). "Report" noted that in 2019 affected "after the real estate cycle," price war and other factors, household appliances retail market fell by 3.82 percent, down for the first time since 2012.
Meanwhile, the "Report" that the new crown pneumonia epidemic disrupted the original home appliance market is not optimistic about the trend, bringing more uncertainty to the market. And it predicts that by 2020, my countrys home appliance market size in comparison with 2019 will be basically flat or slightly down, year-round home appliance market share of online retail sales will reach 50%.
In an interview, Guangdong Zhongshan, a kitchen electric manufacturing company official told the trend of home network,In fact, in January 2020, market performance was okay, but affected by the epidemic, almost stagnant in February, March is not optimistic, overall, almost a quarter "scrapped." If the epidemic can not be fully controlled at the end of March, it will affect the real estate and home improvement markets return to work, so closely associated with this industry almost always be involved in the entire first half.
in conjunction with the consumer electronics market, the decline in the first quarter of 2020, retail sales of household appliances terminal market is almost a certainty. Industry experts believe that the entire first half of the consumer electronics market will be relatively sluggish, 6.18 promotional period is likely to usher in a turning point.
The experts believe that the entire appliance industry stocks generally higher, while the overlay market downturn in the first quarter after missing the promotional, businesses and regard the expectations placed on a platform in the second quarter of promotional node. As long as the epidemic under control, then the next 5.1 and 6.18 will be the first half of 2020 more important marketing node.
is the case, the major brands invariably eyeing the upcoming 5.1 and 6.18 promotion. The industry also seems to be a consensus, the entire second quarter, and even the second half performance can recover, both 5.1 and 6.18 wave promotion is essential.
(Source: HC, invasion deleted)
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